Posted by Louis Mazzenga

Severe weather outbreaks aren’t that common in October, but this weekend is an exception as severe weather is expected to develop Friday and into Saturday. A low-pressure system and associated upper-level trough will bring the potential for severe weather to parts of the south and midwest this weekend. There is plenty of moisture available to this system as it spent a couple days over the Pacific Ocean before beginning its track across the southwestern part of the country.

Below is the current surface analysis map from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

The surface low is currently located over the Arizona-Nevada-Utah border and will move east towards Texas through Friday and into Saturday, where it will begin to move northeast as a fairly warm and humid ass mass awaits. This air mass will help keep the threat of severe weather alive, especially in the midwest, as the system continues to move across the country. The upper level low is clearly visible below from the 500 mb height lines from the 12 UTC NAM. The 500 mb vorticity map from the same model run is also shown below and shows that the conditions are favorable for the upper-level trough to strengthen, as there is plenty of positive vorticity associated with this trough.

500 mb Heights

500 mb Vorticity

This system has a history of producing storms that have strong winds and heavy precipitation, hail and even tornados are also possible with this storm. Below are the convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center as well (as the tornado probability for Friday) for the weekend. If you live in an area that could be affected by these storms make sure you are aware of any watches and warnings for your area and take appropriate action if you are in the path of one of these storms.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

Friday Tornado Probability

Day 2 Convective Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook


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