As the week continues, a dome of high pressure anomalies will begin build across the west central region of the Plains. This will allow an extended period of warm and dry conditions to build across the interior Rockies.
6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC)
6-10 Day Precipitation Forecast (CPC)
As for portions of the eastern US, a surge of warm and humid (tropical like) air masses will invade the region begin this weekend. Let summer begin!
by Mark Sperduti
Posted by Tyler Castillo
Today, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for areas just south of Casper, Wyoming extending as far south as Midland, Texas.
The tornado threat is low today, although damaging winds are possible. Hail will be the biggest threat today. The storms should initiate later in the afternoon as MLCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg as a result of intense daytime heating.
Storms that develop today will most likely be supercellular as sfc-500mb bulk shear will be maintained around 35-40 knots.
Here is the current map of the U.S., as you can see there are chances for some storms across many parts of the country. These areas include the southeast, northeast, Great Lakes region, and northwest. The only severe areas will be the region outlined above.
by Chris Hubbard
An area of disorganized thunderstorms and clouds has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. Although there has been no major development over the past day, there is still a chance for this storm to develop in the next 48 hours. The NHC states that it has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical system. This area of clouds is expected to move inland onto the Yucatan Peninsula and bring heavy rains and strong winds to the peninsula.
Other than this storm there are no other areas of interest in either the Atlantic nor the Eastern Pacific and no systems are expected to form in the near future.
Posted by Tyler Castillo
Over the past several days, the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states have been slammed by severe storms as a result of a progressive shortwave trough accompanied by a surface low pressure.
On Wednesday, June 12, most of the 409 storms reports can be found within the Ohio Valley. This includes 30 tornado reports, 257 wind reports, and 122 hail reports. Not all of these reports can be associated to the Ohio Valley region as there were a couple reports made out west.
Yesterday’s severe events were mainly confined to the mid-Atlantic states. The system produced a total of 798 storm reports, which included 9 tornado reports, 80 hail reports, and 709 wind reports.
By Chris Hubbard
A mid level trough is headed to the DelMarVa region and will reach the area tonight. This system will be cause of some potentially serious weather effecting places from Richmond to Philadelphia. A strong low pressure (~992mb) is one of the main proponents of the severity of the weather.
Some strong vertical wind shear is also going to be in play, elevating CAPE levels (seen in the upper left hand picture). A strong pocket of PVA is associated with this front (bottom left), which is what will cause the heights to fall so low. A low pressure system with this low of a level almost looks like a winter Nor’easter and is not very common for June when we are so close to solstice. Tornado watches will most likely be issued for the DelMarVa region as well as for SE PA. Strong thunderstorm warnings will be far more extensive, reaching down into the Carolinas as the derecho stretches further south.
There is also a chance for thunderstorms throughout Wednesday night as the warm front associated with the low passes through. Some late night thunderstorm warnings may be issued, an not so common occurrence. Once the warm front passes through, a plume of warm, moist air will enter the region, leading up to the events on Thursday.
Model simulations from SimuAWIPS.