Thursday, July 21, 2016

Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 73 and it feels like 73. Highs will continue to range between 94 and 98 with lows between 71 and 74. There is a slight chance of rain today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, and a 40% chance of AM thunderstorms on Saturday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 74 and it feels like 74. Todays high is 97 and a low of 75 with a slight chance of rain. Fridays high is 97 with a slight chance of rain.

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Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There are no threats of severe weather in the longer range.

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Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather today over portions of the Southeastern States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather today from the Central/Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes and Western New York. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today over a portion of the Great Lakes Region. Primary threats: large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow from portions of the Northern and Central High Plains to Western Minnesota and Northwest Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow extending Westward across New York/New Jersey and Pennsylvania to Northern Ohio/Indiana/Illinois into Southern Lower Michigan. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2a) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Northern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2b) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow across part of Eastern New York into New England. Primary threats: large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Saturday surrounding the Slight Risk from the Central Dakotas into the Central Plains and from the Upper Great Lakes to the Midwest and Ohio Valley Region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather on Saturday across the Eastern Dakotas through Minnesota into Western/Northwest Wisconsin and Western Upper Michigan. Primary threats: damaging winds and large hail.

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Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Estelle has winds of 60mph, gusting to 70mph, with a pressure of 996mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 15mph. Is expected to remain a tropical storm and dissipate by late week. Not a threat to land. (#2) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles South of Acapulco, Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally Northwestward at about 10mph to the South of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Medium chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 90%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. (#3) Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located about 1000 miles South of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves West-Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Darby has winds of 65mph, gusting to 75mph, with a pressure of 998mbars. Movement is West-Southwest at 14mph. Is expected to remain a tropical storm and pass very close to Hawaii late week through the weekend. Potential impacts for Hawaii will include: heavy rain, gusty winds, high surf/waves, and rip currents. In the Western Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), no development is expected over the next 5 days.

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