North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Highs will continue to range between 74 and 80 with lows between 51 and 65. There is a 60% chance of PM showers today, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow, a 40% chance of PM thunderstorms on Wednesday, and a slight chance of rain next Tuesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Todays high is 78 and a low of 66 with a 50% chance of PM showers. Tuesdays high is 79 with a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms.
Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There is no threat of organized or significant severe weather in the long range.
Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather today across the North-Central and Northeast Gulf Coastal Areas. Main threats: gusty winds and brief isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday over a portion of the Central High Plains. Main threats: small hail and locally gusty winds.
Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, (#1) A low pressure system located over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles North of the Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extends from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Southward across Western Cuba and into the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for development while this system moves Northward toward the Northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this large disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Northeastern Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeastern United States during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local National Weather Service office. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. (#2) Tropical Depression Eleven has winds of 35mph, gusting to 45mph, with a pressure of 1007mbars. Movement is West at 2mph. Is expected to intensify into a tropical storm by tomorrow and may have some impacts on the East Coast by late week as a weakening storm. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Marty has winds of 70mph, gusting to 85mph, with a pressure of 990mbars. Movement is North at 2mph. Is expected to remain a tropical storm through Wednesday and affect the coast of Mexico through Friday morning. Is expected to dissipate by next weekend. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Acapulco, Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. (#2) A trough of low pressure located about 1000 miles South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development of this system during the next several days, however, upper-level winds could become less favorable by the end of the week while this disturbance moves East-Northeastward or Northeastward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Niala has winds of 40mph, gusting to 50mph, with a pressure of 1005mbars. Movement is West-Southwest at 10mph. Is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by later today and dissipate mid to late week. In the Western Pacific, (#1) Typhoon Dujuan has winds of 140mph, gusting to 165mph, with a pressure of 925mbars. Movement is Northwest at 11mph. Is expected to pass over Taiwan today through tomorrow and dissipate over Eastern China by midweek. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), no development is expected over the next 5 days.
Long Range Outlook: As we head into early October, expect an increase in rainfall across the Southeast. Temperatures will range between normal to slightly below normal. May see one to three tropical threats going through early to mid October.
Weather Word of the Week: Rip Current. Is a relatively small-scale surf-zone current moving away from the beach. Rip currents form as waves disperse along the beach causing water to become trapped between the beach and a sandbar or other underwater feature. The water converges into a narrow, river-like channel moving away from the shore at high speed.
Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.