North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 86 and 93 with lows between 67 and 72. There is a 60% chance of PM thunderstorms today, a slight chance of rain tomorrow, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Friday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Saturday, a slight chance of rain next Monday, a slight chance of rain next Tuesday, and a 40% chance of PM thunderstorms next Wednesday. Few strong to severe storms are possible today. Main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding. Best timing for storms will be from noon to 9pm this evening. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Todays high is 89 and a low of 70 with a 60% chance of PM thunderstorms. Tuesdays high is 89 with a slight chance of rain.
Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There is no threat of organized or significant severe weather in the long range.
Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather today surrounding the Slight Risk area from the Northeast States to the Tennessee Valley Westward to the Southern High Plains and into the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today from the Mid-South through the TN/OH Valleys to Central MD/PA and parts of Southeastern NY/Northwestern NJ. Main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Southern High Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across portions of Montana/Northern High Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1c) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across portions of the East/Southeast CONUS. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1d) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across the Southeast States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday from the Northern/Central High Plains to the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across the North-Central High Plains. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.
Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Blanca has winds of 50mph, gusting to 65mph, with a pressure of 994mbars. Movement is North-Northwest at 15mph. Is expected to continue to weaken and dissipate by tomorrow. Blanca will impact the Southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula as a weakening tropical storm through today. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Loreto to just North of Loreto. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from a few miles North of Todos Santos to just South of Loreto. Threats will be high waves, rough surf, rip currents, heavy rainfall of 6-10 inches expected with isolated totals up to 15 inches, mudslides, and strong gusty winds. (#2) Disorganized shower activity continues several hundred miles South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in association with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are expected to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the next several days as this system moves slowly Northwestward or Northward, although any development of this disturbance should be slow to occur. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, no development is expected over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5-10 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa has winds of 45mph, gusting to 60mph, with a pressure of 994mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 9mph. Is expected to intensify into a category 1 cyclone by late Tuesday/early Wednesday as it tracks towards the Gulf of Oman and near the coasts of Pakistan/Iran.
Long Range Outlook: As we head into mid June, expect a continued increase in rainfall across the Southeast. Temperatures will range between normal to much above normal. May start to see a slight uptick in tropical activity as we head towards mid to late June, primarily off Southeast Coast and Gulf of Mexico. A very active Hurricane/Typhoon season expected in the Eastern/Western Pacific Basins.
Weather Word of the Week: Tropical Disturbance. Is a discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection-generally 100 to 300mi in diameter-originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a non-frontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.
Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.