North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 72 and it feels like 72. Highs will continue to range between 94 and 97 with lows between 71 and 73. There is a 60% chance of PM thunderstorms on Thursday, a slight chance of rain on Saturday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms next Monday, a slight chance of rain next Tuesday, and a slight chance of rain next Wednesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 72 and it feels like 72. Todays high is 94 with a low of 71. Tuesdays high is 95.
Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There is no threat of organized or significant severe weather in the long range.
Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather today across the Middle and Upper Texas Coastal Areas to far Southwest Louisiana. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather today across portions of the Interior West and Rockies. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1c) Marginal Risk of severe weather today from the Southern Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow from the ARKLATEX vicinity East-Northeastward across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Northern Intermountain Region and Eastward into the Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2a) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow from parts of Montana/Wyoming Eastward into South Dakota/Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2b) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow from the Ohio Valley/Midwest Region East-Northeastward into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across a large portion of the Midwest vicinity. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across the High Plains. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a 15% severe weather probability for Day 4 (Thursday/Friday) across Northwestern Nebraska, Northeastern Wyoming, Western South Dakota, Southwestern North Dakota, and Southeastern Montana in the Day 4-8 Outlook. This means there is a 15% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a given point.
Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, (#1) Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico has changed little over the past several hours. The system’s circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. The low continues to produce tropical storm force winds well to the East and Northeast of the center. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable while this system moves Northwestward during the next day or two across the Western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form during that time. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later this morning. Interests in and along the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast and the Western Louisiana coast Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana. For additional information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts as well as products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a High chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Carlos has winds of 70mph, gusting to 85mph, with a pressure of 988mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 6mph. Is expected to reintensify into a hurricane by late tonight for a brief time before weakening to a tropical storm again. Is expected to ride near or along coastline through late Thursday. Expected to weaken to a tropical depression by late Wednesday into Thursday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana. Primary threats will be very heavy rainfall totals of 6-10 inches with locally 15 inches possible, flash flooding, mudslides, high winds, rip currents, high waves/surf, and beach erosion. In the Central Pacific, no development is expected over the next several days. In the Western Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5-10 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5-10 days.
Long Range Outlook: As we head into mid June, expect a continued increase in rainfall across the Southeast. Temperatures will range between normal to much above normal. May start to see a slight uptick in tropical activity as we head towards mid to late June, primarily off Southeast Coast and Gulf of Mexico. A very active Hurricane/Typhoon season expected in the Eastern/Western Pacific Basins.
Weather Word of the Week: Tropical Storm Watch. Is an announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.