North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 73 and it feels like 73. Highs will continue to range between 91 and 97 with lows between 70 and 74. There is a slight chance of rain today, a 40% chance of PM thunderstorms tomorrow, and a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 75 and it feels like 75. Todays high is 95 and a low of 74 with a slight chance of rain. Tuesdays high is 95 with a slight chance of rain.
Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There are no threats of severe weather in the longer range.
Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather today from the Northern and Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today from the Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across the Northern High Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow over the Midwest. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across the Northern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather on Wednesday across the Northern Plains. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a 15% chance of severe weather on Day 4 (Thursday/Friday) in the Day 4-8 Outlook across Southeast Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, much of Wisconsin, and Upper Michigan. This means there is a 15% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, (#1) Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave located over the East-Central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles South of the Dominican Republic has increased and become significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 45mph are occurring on the Northern and Eastern areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the wave moves into the Central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it approaches Jamaica and moves into the Western Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves Westward at 20 to 25mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the Western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a High chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 80%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Howard has winds of 40mph, gusting to 50mph, with a pressure of 1005mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 12mph. Is expected to remain a tropical storm through tomorrow and then dissipate by Wednesday. Not a threat to land. (#2) A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles South of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system later this week while it moves West-Northwestward at around 15mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Western Pacific, (#1) Typhoon Nida has winds of 80mph, gusting to 100mph, with a pressure of 975mbars. Movement is Northwest at 20mph. Is expected to hit the Southern China coast later today through tomorrow then dissipate by Wednesday. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), no development is expected over the next 5 days.
Long Range Outlook: As we head into early August, expect a continuance in normal to slightly below normal rainfall across the Southeast with still some potential for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will range between normal to slightly above normal.
Weather Word of the Week: Storm Surge. An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic tide from the observed storm tide.
Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.