North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 71 and it feels like 71. Highs will continue to range between 93 and 101 with lows between 70 and 74. There is a slight chance of rain today, a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow, and a slight chance of rain on Wednesday. Few storms could be strong to severe today. Primary threat: damaging winds. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Todays high is 88 and a low of 70 with a 40% chance of PM thunderstorms. Tuesdays high is 92 with a 40% chance of AM thunderstorms.

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Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There are no threats of severe weather in the longer range.

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Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather today over parts of the Southeastern States. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather today across the Northern and Central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today from the Upper MS Valley/Northern Plains Southward into the Central Plains and Mid Missouri Valley. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow surrounding the Slight Risk area from the Great Lakes Southwest into portions of the Central/Southern Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather tomorrow from Upper Michigan Southwest into portions of the Midwest/Central Plains. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday from portions of the Great Lakes into Western portions of the Southern/Central Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather on Wednesday from portions of the Central Plains into the Great Lakes/Midwest. Primary threats: large hail and damaging winds.

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Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Hurricane Celia has winds of 85mph, gusting to 105mph, with a pressure of 983mbars. Movement is West at 13mph. Is expected to maintain hurricane intensity over the next few days. Not a threat to land. (#2) Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in organization since yesterday association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles South of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the low moves West-Northwestward to Westward at about 10mph, away from the coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a High chance, 70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a High chance, 90%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. (#3) An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles South of the coast of Mexico later this week. Some subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves Westward to West-Northwestward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Western Pacific, no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), no development is expected over the next 5 days.

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Long Range Outlook: As we head into mid July, expect a continuance in normal to slightly below normal rainfall across the Southeast with still some potential for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will range between normal to slightly above normal.

Weather Word of the Week: Tropical Wave. Is a trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere or may be the reflection of an upper tropospheric cold low or an equatorward extension of a mid-latitude trough.

Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.