North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 64 and it feels like 66. Highs will continue to range between 84 and 95 with lows between 59 and 70. There is no rain expected over the next 5 days. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 69 and it feels like 69. Todays high is 93 with a low of 69. Wednesdays high is 93.

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Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There are no threats of severe weather in the longer range.

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Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather today surrounding the Slight Risk area from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central High Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today from Southern Upper Michigan through Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota/Northern Iowa into Eastern to South-Central Nebraska. Primary threats: large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow across portions of Eastern Nebraska and Kansas Northeast to Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois. Primary threats: small hail and gusty winds.

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Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, (#1) Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine has winds of 65mph, gusting to 75mph, with a pressure of 996mbars. Movement is West at 8mph. Is expected to stall out by tonight South of Long Island then resume a Northeast course by tomorrow. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor, New Haven to Sagamore Beach, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Wind: Tropical storm conditions expected over portions of the warning area today. Storm Surge: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor: 1 to 2 feet. Rainfall: Hermine is expected to produce additional light rainfall amounts not exceeding 1 inch along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coastline from New Jersey to eastern Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts. Surf: Large waves generated by Hermine will continue to affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England for another couple of days. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. (#2) A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days with little development expected.  Upper-level winds could become more conducive for some development when the wave approaches the Yucatan peninsula late this week.  Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds could occur over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next day or two. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Low chance, 20%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. (#3) A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is expected to form several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands late this week.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system after that time while it moves west-northwestward into the central tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Hurricane Newton has winds of 90mph, gusting to 115mph, with a pressure of 979mbars. Movement is North-Northwest at 17mph. Is expected to dissipate by Thursday over Arizona. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for: Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege, including Cabo San Lucas, Guaymas to Bahia Kino. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for: North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista, Mazatlan to Guaymas, Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for: Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. Wind:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over much of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These hazardous wind conditions will spread northward through this morning within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico within the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warning areas beginning later this morning, and these conditions will gradually spread northward throughout the day and into tonight. Rainfall: Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Sonora, western Nayarit, and Jalisco, and a small part of Baja California Norte through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico through Thursday. In all of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Storm Surge: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall on both the southern Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surf:  Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico through today, and begin to subside on Wednesday.  Swells should increase across the southern and central portions of the Baja California peninsula today and today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. (#2) Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it drifts eastward, and then turns northward later in the week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Medium chance, 50%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. (#3) An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Slow development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a Low chance, 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 40%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Lester has winds of 60mph, gusting to 70mph, with a pressure of 999mbars. Movement is North at 12mph. Is expected to dissipate by late tomorrow. In the Western Pacific, (#1) Tropical Storm Malou has winds of 45mph, gusting to 60mph, with a pressure of 1000mbars. Movement is Northeast at 22mph. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), no development is expected over the next 5 days.

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Long Range Outlook: As we head into early September, expect a continuance in normal to slightly above normal rainfall across the Southeast with still some potential for strong to severe storms. Temperatures will range between normal to slightly above normal.

Weather Word of the Week: Rip Current. Is A relatively small-scale surf-zone current moving away from the beach. Rip currents form as waves disperse along the beach causing water to become trapped between the beach and a sandbar or other underwater feature. The water converges into a narrow, river-like channel moving away from the shore at high speed.

Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.