North MS Local Forecast: Good Morning! At Smithville, MS, the current temperature is 66 and it feels like 66. Highs will continue to range between 89 and 98 with lows between 69 and 73. There is a 50% chance of PM thunderstorms on Wednesday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Friday, a 50% chance of scattered thunderstorms on Saturday, a slight chance of rain next Monday, and a 60% chance of PM thunderstorms next Wednesday. Few storms could be strong to severe Wednesday. Main threats: large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. At the Regional Rehab Center in Tupelo, MS, the current temperature is 70 and it feels like 70. Todays high is 96 with a low of 72. Tuesdays high is 96.

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map_specnewsdct-100_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366 106Severe Weather Update (Southeast Region): Now, for your Severe Weather Update for the Southeast Region. There is no threat of organized or significant severe weather in the long range.

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probhazards_d8_14_contours 74Severe Weather Outlook (Nationwide): Now, for your Nationwide Severe Weather Outlook. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather today from New England Southwestward across the Ohio Valley and then Westward across Missouri/Kansas into the Central and Southern High Plains. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#2) Slight Risk of severe weather today across portions of the Northeast and Ohio Valley Vicinity. Main threats: large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1a) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow from portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1b) Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow from portions of the Plains through the Middle MS Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Portion of the Ohio Valley. Main threats: large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a (#1) Marginal Risk of severe weather on Wednesday over a portion of the Lower-Mid MS Valley and Western Tennessee Valley. Main threats: large hail and damaging winds.

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day3otlk_0730 204 day3prob_0730 303Tropical Update: Now, for your tropical update. In the Atlantic, (#1) A weak area of low pressure located along the coast of the Florida Big Bend continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of Northern Florida and the extreme Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for development as this low begins to move Northeastward at 5 to 10mph across North Florida and near the Southeastern United States coast during the next few days. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Northern Florida today. For additional information on rainfall associated with this system, refer to products from your local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a Low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Eastern Pacific, (#1) Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with an area of low pressure located about 1000 miles South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development of this system over the next few days while it moves West-Northwestward at 10 to 15mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given this system a Low chance, 30%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a Medium chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. In the Central Pacific, (#1) Hurricane Guillermo has winds of 75mph, gusting to 90mph, with a pressure of 990mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 10mph. Is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by later today and will begin to impact Hawaii late tomorrow through Friday. In the Western Pacific, (#1) Major Typhoon Soudelor has winds of 120mph, gusting to 150mph, with a pressure of 930mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 14mph. Is expected to become a category 4 major typhoon later today. Is expected to hit Taiwan and China as a weakening category 4 typhoon by late week into the weekend. (#2) Tropical Depression Fourteen-W has winds of 35mph, gusting to 45mph, with a pressure of 1010mbars. Movement is West-Northwest at 6mph. Is not a threat to land and will dissipate by later today. In the North Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal), no development is expected over the next couple of days. In the North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South-West Indian Ocean), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (Australian Region), no development is expected over the next 5 days. In the Southern Hemisphere (South Pacific), (#1) Tropical Cyclone #1 has winds of 40mph, gusting to 50mph, with a pressure of 1000mbars. Movement is East at 2mph. Is expected to remain a tropical storm until Thursday when it weakens to a depression. Should dissipate after that time.

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Long Range Outlook: As we head into early August, expect a continued increase in rainfall across the Southeast. Temperatures will range between normal to much above normal.

Weather Word of the Week: Storm Surge. Is an abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomical tide from the observed storm tide.

Where to find more about me: Visit my website at Parker Weather Service.com, or follow me on Twitter at JohnnyParker012@twitter.com and on Google Plus JohnnyParker. The Regional Rehabilitation Center in Tupelo, MS, serves people, like myself, with physical disabilities. I am their “Weatherman in Residence”.